Second Qualifying Final -Port Adelaide Power v Geelong Cats

Friday 27/8/21

Keen on the Cats to topple Port here at Adelaide Oval. I know this is home ground advantage for the Power, but it won’t be a full house due to COVID restrictions. I’m sure that’ll somewhat nullify any perceived advantage for Port. This is the second year running the Cats have faced Port in a qualifying final – and they’ll be looking to turn the tables after last year’s 16-point loss. That was the Cats’ first qualifying final loss in six years. The Cats also beat the Power in a high-scoring clash when they met this year. The Power lose gun forward Georgiades and I think it’ll stretch their goal-scoring options. I’m sure the Cats will be scathing after letting slip a big lead to give up the minor premiership last week against the Demons.

Suggested bet: 2u Geelong win at $2.22

Second Elimination Final – Sydney Swans v GWS Giants

Saturday 28/8/21

A very tricky contest with the Sydney Derby played in Launceston as an Elimination Final. Sydney seems an obvious bet given their stellar run of form this year, but the Giants cannot be underestimated. When at their best, they are a hard-to-contain, well-oiled machine with match-winners across the ground. They also know how to get the job done in finals. I like the way the Giants are tracking in season 2021 and they get some massive personnel changes, with Shane Mumford, Sam Reid and Tom Green all coming into the side. Callum Mills comes out for the Swans and he is an important cog in this Swans outfit. It’s near impossible to decipher if either side will have an advantage from this clash being played in Tasmania. The Giants have played here once this season and drew with the Kangaroos. These two sides have faced each other twice in finals and it’s been the Giants making a mess of the Swans on both occasions. I think they can get the job done again.

Suggested bet: 2u Giants win at $2.18

First Qualifying Final  – Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions

Saturday 28/8/21

An epic clash with the Demons looking to make it five consecutive night match wins at Adelaide Oval. Melbourne head into this unchanged but the Lions have regained Harris Andrews and Mitch Robinson. These sides faced off early in the year and it was the Demons who dominated the second half to record a come-from-behind win. I’m not sure there’s any real advantage with this match being played in Adelaide, but as mentioned above, the Demons have a knack of winning here under lights. Much like the first two games in the opening round of finals, there’s value with the slight outsider as I think the Lions can get the Demons here.

Suggested bet: 1.5u Brisbane win at $2.14

First Elimination Final – Western Bulldogs v Essendon Bombers

Sunday 29/8/21

While the Bulldogs have fallen in a hole in recent weeks, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them back to their best to open the finals series. I’m still worried about the Dogs’ ruck department and they’ve resisted bringing in Stefan Martin here. It’s a bold move. However, the Bombers have lost each of their last five finals and this is a stern test against a side which in reality has been a top four side all year. We’re getting an inflated price about the Dogs because they’ve lost their past three and their opponents have won their last three.  Add in the fact the Bombers beat the Dogs in this fixture only a few weeks ago, and it’s another reason the Dogs aren’t really short, despite largely being entitled to be $1.30ish. I think the Dogs will have a bit too much class.

Suggested bet: 1.5u Bulldogs win at $1.58