Best Bets | Happy Valley, 23 February 2022

Scotch Tycoon (Happy Valley Race 5 No.1)

When going through the form for this meeting and seeing what this bloke went through last start, the price seems slight overs in comparison. He was awkwardly placed on heels at the 450m mark, raced tight when entering the straight and then at the 200m mark he shifted to the inside to try to find some clear air. As he has shifted over, he bumped into another runner, became unbalanced, and shifted out to avoid being on heels again. So to conclude, after all this he was unable to be tested over the final 200m. I thought he settled too close to the run as it was and exerted too much energy and I think he is better ridden with a sit, which he may just get here from barrier 8. He proved too strong two starts ago with a similar ride, and maybe Zac Purton can get him to come back and really sit of the speed, which is all drawn to his inside. Zac Purton has a 29.6% strike rate when riding for the Lui stable (24/81) and I am expecting that run to continue.

Suggested bet: 0.6 unit @ $7.00

Meaningful Star (Happy Valley Race 2 No.3) & Dr. Winning (Happy Valley Race 2 No.8)

Meaningful Star is the best horse in this race in my opinion, but we all know racing isn’t that clear cut. This bloke has been massive over his past two runs, going down 1.9 lengths in second two runs back, where he faced a lot of trouble throughout but finished the race off well. Last start he was no match for the winner, again running second but he also drifted back on the turn, which gives me the indication he will need to get going a lot earlier to avoid being shuffled back again. Purton and Lui combine again, so I am expecting a much more improved effort. Dr. Winning is one that can provide the knockout blow in this race. He ran a career-best rating last start and is up in grade for the first time. He will need the pace on, which there is some here and I love the draw as they will be able to settle at the rear and have clear air in the straight.

Suggested bet:  1.5 units @ $2.70 & 0.7 unit @ $6.00

Packing Award (Happy Valley Race 3 No.2) & Maximize Heart (Happy Valley Race 3 No.9)

Another duel bet in a wide-open affair. Packing Award settled in the back half of the field last start and finished off moderately, and the stewards did query the run. He has drawn a similar gate here though there is little pace in this race and with him stepping up to 1650m for the first time, I am expecting them to lead or at least be handy. His career-best performance was settling in the front two and over 1400m, although it was got a different stable. Maximize Heart is the other I don’t mind in this race after a very nice win first-up at Sha Tin over the 1400m. Vagner Borges weaved a passage with confidence to get the son of Holy Roman Emperor home and I think with a similar draw, up to 1650m, he can be a force in the concluding stages, providing he gets clear air.

Suggested bet:  0.7 unit @ $6.00 & 0.5 unit @ $9.00

Lightning Storm (Happy Valley Race 6 No.6)

This is a cracking sprint race with Special M, Whizz Kid, and our pick Lightning Storm. He was tremendous over this track and distance last start, taking a seat just behind the leader before peeling off and bolting away. It is interesting to note that he ran home the 13th quickest last 200m of the entire meeting which is immaculate. He goes up in grade which I don’t see an issue and Zac Purton will partner with him once again which gives me great confidence. He is drawn well in barrier four and with all the speed to his outside, I am expecting Purton to get him into a nice rhythm like last start before unleashing late.

Suggested bet:  1.4 units @ $2.90

Rewarding Together (Happy Valley Race 7 No.2)

This bloke is going for three on the trot after two very convincing victories. Two starts ago he was dominant in Class 4 over 1200m, despite traveling keenly throughout the race. He carried 60kg on the day against some decent Class 4 horses, and he proved way too good. Last start he stepped up to Class 3 and once again proved too good, running nice time to win by just over a length and a half. Chadwick was kind to him on the line and the margin could have been a touch longer, which just shows how easy he did it. He has drawn well again especially in reference to speed as it is all to his outside, so he should be able to still maintain a positive position, Chadwick remains aboard and if he can run a similar rating to his past two runs, he is going to be hard to stop again.

Suggested bet:  1.2 units @ $3.50

Majestic Star (Happy Valley Race 9 No.11) & Carroll Street (Happy Valley Race 9 No.7)

What a Class 2 for us to finish the night on! Literally, half the field could win this and the betting suggests similar. Majestic Star was a big winner last start on the All-Weather track, carrying his 60kg to a 1.5 length victory whilst running some nice sectionals. He has a slight challenge here as he steps up in grade but his figures suggest he should still run a bottler. There is a lot of pace in this race and he is drawn perfectly to kick up and camp just behind it before making a move on the bend/in the straight. Carroll Street was a tragedy last start, after losing ground at a key stage of the race whilst sitting last, he recovered well and ran the fourth quickest last 400m and 200m splits of the entire day, finishing in fifth, 2.3 lengths back. He arguably should have gone close to winning but alas here we are. He gets Daniel Moor aboard and goes up 200m which I think will suit at this stage of his preparation as he has run career-best figures since getting the blinkers on for the first time (well last start wasn’t but he had plenty of excuses). Look for him late.

Suggested bet:  0.7 unit @ $6.50 & 0.6 unit @ $7.50