Last Week (Profit/Loss): -2.5 units  l  Overall Season (Profit/Loss): +2.8 units

Betting into five of nine AFL games this week.  Please see my preview and staking plan.

Brisbane Lions v Collingwood Magpies

Thursday 14/4/22 @ The Gabba

Last 5 Encounters |  Brisbane 3  |  Collingwood 2

Verdict

After exceeding expectations in the opening rounds of the season Collingwood suffered a reality check on the weekend succumbing to an undermanned West Coast Eagles at home – a game which they were expected to win and really should have won.  Too make matters worse their most dangerous forward – Jamie Elliot suffered a serious shoulder injury – and will miss a large chunk of football.

Brisbane suffered their first loss of the season against Geelong at Geelong.  It was a tight game all night which could of gone either way.  The Lions were with out their number one ruck Oscar McInerny who comes back into the side this week following a one week suspension and I really think they should be much to good for Collingwood at home.  They are right in their premiership window and Collingwood are still a young team rebuilding.

Suggested bet – 1.5 Units Brisbane Line (-30.5) @ $1.90 (Sportsbet) 

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne Kangaroos

Friday 15/4/22 @ Geelong

Last 5 Encounters |  Western Bulldogs 4  |  North Melbourne 1

Verdict

Both teams enter the good Friday game off the back of losses.  The Western Bulldogs backed up a wasteful performance in front of goal the week before against Sydney with another one against Richmond.  Bad goal kicking is bad football and unlike the Swans the Tigers made the Doggies pay.

Following a 100+ point loss to Brisbane not many gave North a chance against Sydney but to their credit they really took it up to the Swans at the SCG.  They were two goals in front in the early stages of the last quarter before the Swans dug deep to secure victory.

Assuming the Bulldogs can kick a little bit straighter I’m pretty confident they bounce back strongly here.  Perhaps not to the level they won this corresponding game by last year (15 goals) but by at least enough to cover the line.  At 1-3 this is simply a must win and I think their midfield power will ensure they again have plenty of chances to hit the scoreboard.

Suggested bet – 1.5 Units Western Bulldogs Line (-31.5) @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

Melbourne Demons  v Greater Western Sydney Giants

Saturday 16/4/22 @ MCG

Last 5 Encounters |  Melbourne 3  |  GWS 2

Verdict

Melbourne are playing in second gear at the moment yet have still managed to cover three of four starting lines this year.

Think this might be an opportunity for the Demons to flex their muscles against the Giants who were disappointing against Fremantle last week.  GWS have issues in the ruck with the suspension of Preuss and they historically don’t play the G well.

Suggested bet – 1.5 Units Melbourne Line (-31.5) @ $1.90 Sportsbet

Carlton Blues v Port Adelaide Power

Sunday 17/4/22 @ Marvel

Last 5 Encounters |  Carlton 0  | Port Adelaide 5

Verdict

Carlton will be without captain and gun midfielder Patrick Cripps when they tackle the winless Power on Sunday afternoon.  It’s a big loss but I think they have the midfield depth to cover and they will be desperate to bounce back after a poor performance against the Suns.  Port have a strong recent record against the Blues – as most sides do – but they are going absolutely awfully at the moment where as Carlton is much improved.  Think the Blues are a solid play in multis this weekend at the current price.

Suggested bet –  Carlton to win (Multis)

Geelong Cats v Hawthorn Hawks

Monday 18/4/22 @ MCG

Last 5 Encounters |  Geelong 3  |  Hawthorn 2

Verdict

The final match of the round is the traditional Easter Monday clash between Geelong and Hawthorn.

The Hawks, who had started the year well, will be looking to respond after being thumped by St Kilda on Sunday.  Geelong on the other hand come off the high of beating Brisbane under the Friday night lights and will welcome back their captain Joel Selwood and best defender Tom Stewart for this.

Hawthorn are capable of challenging Geelong but if they are to do so then they need to win the midfield battle and look after the ball better than they did last week.  Hawthorn’s defence was troubled by the St Kilda talls and the task doesn’t get any easier this week with an inform Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins looming large, so it’s critical they restrict supply.

The Hawks have a solid enough recent record against the Cats and surged late to just miss them last year in the corresponding game.  They are worth a small ticket here at the plus.

Suggested bet – 1 Unit Hawthorn Line (+16.5) @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

Multi – 2 Units @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)

  • Brisbane (Win)
  • Western Bulldogs (Win)
  • Carlton (Win)