Last Week (Profit/Loss): -0.65 units  l  Overall Season (Profit/Loss): +6.5 units

Geelong Cats v Fremantle Dockers

Saturday 30/4/22 @ Geelong

Last 5 Encounters |  Geelong 4 | Fremantle 1

Verdict

Fremantle have made a strong start to the season and currently sit in equal second on the AFL ladder with a record of 5-1. They face Geelong in Geelong on Saturday afternoon in what is sure to be their toughest test yet. The Cats bounced back strongly after an upset loss to Hawthorn on Easter Monday with a 10 goal win over North Melbourne in Tasmania. Jeremy Cameron the star of the show with 7 goals – his biggest ever bag for the Cats.

No surprise to see some early money for Geelong in this given they are at home but Fremantle have something the ageing Cats don’t and that’s leg speed and I think that has the potential really challenge Geelong. The traveling Lions ran the Cats to 10 points here three weeks ago and it wouldn’t surprise to see Fremantle do something similar. Backing them with the start.

Suggested Bet – 1 Unit Fremantle Line (+ 22.5) @ $1.90 Sportsbet

Adelaide Crows v Greater Western Sydney Giants

Saturday 30/4/22 @ Adelaide

Last 5 Encounters | Adelaide 2 | GWS 3

Verdict

Adelaide made it three from their last four after a gritty one point win over the Western Bulldogs in Round 6.

GWS put in an improved showing against the Saints but ultimately their lack of forward line polish was there down fall. Toby Green was quiet in his first game back but will be much better for the run and they should get key forward Jesse Hogan back who missed last week.

The Giants were in a very similar situation at 2-4 when they travelled to Adelaide to play the Crows last year in this corresponding round. They ran out 67 point winners. Adelaide have improved somewhat since then but are still an inexperienced side and could be vulnerable here against the Giants who are searching desperately for their second win.

Suggested Bet – 1 Unit GWS win @ $2.31 Sportsbet

Melbourne Demons v Hawthorn Hawks

Saturday 30/4/22 @ MCG

Last 5 Encounters | Melbourne 4 | Draw 1

Verdict

Hawthorn made a fast start against Sydney in Tasmania last week but really fell away badly once the Swans found the lead mid way through the third quarter.

Despite some very poor goal kicking the Demons were far too good for Richmond in the ANZAC eve clash against Richmond.

The Hawks have tightened up in the betting since it was announced that Melbourne would lose a couple of players with covid this week but I think personal is often over played in modern footy and the Dee’s do get Lever back for this. Its just really hard to see the Hawks getting enough looks on goal to challenge them.

Suggested Bet – 1 Unit Melbourne Line (-25.5) @ $1.90 Sportsbet

St Kilda Saints v Port Adelaide Power

Saturday 30/4/22 @ Cairns

Last 5 Encounters | St Kilda 1 | Port Adelaide 4

Verdict

Port Adelaide notched up their first win of the season in a dominant display over the languishing Eagles at home last week.

Was that the start of a resurgence or more a reflection on how poorly the Eagles are going? Well heres a pretty good litmus test taking on St Kilda in Cairns.

There was nothing pretty about St Kilda’s win against GWS but it showed how far the Saints have come. They were challenged strongly and despite losing both ruckman with injuries found a way to win.

The Saints will be determined to bank these four points ahead of the big test against Melbourne at the MCG next week. They bring in the superior form and will get Paddy Ryder and potentially one or two others back for this. Happy to play them in multis.

Suggested Bet – St Kilda (Win) Multis

Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions

Sunday 1/5/22 @ SCG

Last 5 Encounters | Sydney 3 | Brisbane 2

Verdict

We have to wait until 4:40 pm on Sunday afternoon for the clear match of the round between the two teams that are widely considered by most as Melbourne’s greatest challengers this year.

Paddy McCartin will miss the mandatory week after being subbed off with concussion against the Hawks. This is a key out for the Swans with both of Brisbane’s key forwards in form.

Despite this, I think there’s very little between the two sides and the Swans are a bet here with the home ground advantage. The line looks a few points too cheap at the -2.5 currently on offer.

Suggested Bet – 1.5 Units Sydney Line (-2.5) @ $1.90 Sportsbet

Multi – 1.5 Units @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)

  • St Kilda (Win)
  • Melbourne (Win)