Gold Coast Titans vs Wests Tigers

Thursday March 31 | Cbus Super Stadium | 8.05pm AEDT

The Tigers are the only team yet to win a game after three rounds and rightly go into this as clear underdogs. While the Titans will be hungry after blowing a massive lead against the Raiders last week. There’s not much between these sides in recent encounters, but it does appear the Titans are the better side in 2022. Both sides have some personnel changes, with the Tigers bolstered by the likes of Roberts, Maumalo and Tuilaga. The Titans are no doubt deserving favourites, but I’m not sure they should be so short.

Suggested bet: 1u Tigers +10.5 at $1.90

Cronulla Sharks vs Newcastle Knights

Friday April 1 | PointsBet Stadium | 6.00pm AEDT

The Sharks look the goods in the early stages of the season and come off a strong win over the Dragons. The Knights have also been improvers and matched it early with the reigning premiers last week before losing 38-20. Newcastle have won the last four meetings between this pair, and welcome back Kalyn Ponga. Tough game to assess and I think the market has it right.

No suggested bet

Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Friday April 1 | BlueBet Stadium | 8.05pm AEDT

Grand final rematch as the resurgent Rabbitohs look to exact some revenge from last year’s loss. The Panthers sit 3-0, even without Nathan Cleary, who is now set to return for this clash. The Panthers have looked clinical early on, while the Rabbitohs dominated the Roosters last week to avoid going 0-3 to start the season. Big game players Latrell Mitchell and Cameron Murray stepped up when it counted in an important win for the Rabbitohs. Another tricky clash to assess, but Penrith is so good at home here at BlueBet Stadium.

Suggested bet: 1u Penrith -7.5 at $1.90

New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos

Saturday April 2 | Moreton Daily Stadium | 3.00pm AEDT

If we overlooked last week’s results, the Broncos would be clear favourites here. They are still at $1.60 but there’s questions marks after being obliterated by the Cowboys last week. While the Warriors chalked up their first win for the season beating the Tigers. This is usually a tight encounter, and with Kurt Capewell under a cloud for the Broncos I’m happy to have something on the Warriors.

Suggested bet: 1u Warriors win at $2.35

Manly Sea Eagles vs Canberra Raiders

Saturday April 2 | Glen Willow Oval | 5.30pm AEDT

Manly notched win number one for the season last week, but they had to wait until facing the lowly Bulldogs to do so. They were far from convincing, while in constrast there was a clear switch that was clicked as the Raiders came-from-behind to beat the Titans. That could be a serious spark for the Raiders’ season. Manly has won four of the last five clashes between this pair, but it’s clear the Sea Eagles are well below their best in the early stages of the season. How they are $2.45 is beyond me.

Suggested bet: 1u Raiders win at $2.75, 1u Raiders +6.5 at $1.90

North Queensland Cowboys vs Sydney Roosters

Saturday April 2 | Queensland Country Bank Stadium | 7.35pm AEDT

Interesting clash. The Cowboys have surprised a few early on and could easily be 3-0. Their strong defence has been a feature, giving up only 22 points in three outings. The Roosters are in danger of going 1-3 to start the season after defeats to the Knights and Rabbitohs, but luckily they have a good record against the Cowboys, winning four of the past five (and many of those by big margins). Defence will be key to the Cowboys turning around their poor form against the Roosters.

Suggested bet: 1u Cowboys win at $2.75

Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Sunday April 3 | AAMI Park | 4.05pm AEDT

No surprise the Storm are raging favourites here, but it’s fair to say they it seems they haven’t improved this year, while the Bulldogs have (admittedly, the only was up for them). Both sides will be smarting after last-gasp losses last week, and the Storm will be particularly keen to atone in front of a home crowd. They also get livewires Xavier Coates and Harry Grant back from injury / illness. Melbourne has also won the last six meetings between this pair, with the last three coming by 22 points or more.

Suggested bet: 1u Storm -14.5 at $1.90

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons

Sunday April 3 | CommBank Stadium | 6.15pm AEDT

The Eels come into this on a high after the golden point win over the Storm last week. It’s hard to assess that win, as it’s not clear how well the Storm are going, and the Eels were far from perfect themselves. The Eels have a very strong overall record at this venue, but have lost here the past two times when facing the Dragons. I think this will be closer than the market suggests. The Dragons were dismantled by the Sharks last week, but before that only went down narrowly to the Panthers,

Suggested bet: 1u Dragons +9.5 at $1.90

Overall results: -0.48u

  • Week 3: +2.65u
  • Week 2: -0.6u
  • Week 1: -2.52u