Best Bets | Happy Valley, 9 March 2022

Melbourne Hall | (Happy Valley Race 6 No.10)

This guy returned with nearly the best run of his career ratings-wise and his best first-up rating so far. Although the track was wet on the day, it was early in the day, so I hold this of minor importance. There is some speed in this race, but it is scattered enough for him to get a nice position in the run. He comes back to Happy Valley where his sole win and six of his seven placings have been which gives me even more confidence in a solid run. I reckon he is going to fly under the radar here and could shock some of these.

Suggested bet:  0.3 unit @ $15.00

Telecom Cheetah | (Happy Valley Race 1 No.4) / Wonder Win | (Happy Valley Race 1 No.5)

This could be a sneaky one depending on prices. Telecom Cheetah has done next to nothing since coming to Hong Kong yet suddenly, the best rider in the country is trialing him and aboard for his first-up run. His trials have been very good around some Class 3 and Group horses like Copartner Elites, Senor Toba and Panfield. There doesn’t look like there is a leader in this race and he has been leading in his trials, so I expect Purton to take him to the front and make every post a winner. Be interesting to see how he goes. Wonder Win is the obvious pick with a nice draw and good previous form. He will get a dream run throughout and could be hard to beat.

Suggested bet:  0.5 unit @ $8.00 / 0.9 unit @ $4.60

One Step Ahead | (Happy Valley Race 2 No.8)

This is a gross race and I have no confidence whatsoever. Our bloke has a much more attractive form line in the lead-up, winning four starts ago and placing each run since. The issue is his running style, and he does give them a start but comes home well. He will go back despite the better draw and there is solid pace here, so he will get his chance if Chadwick is on his bike early.

Suggested bet:  No Bet @ $3.80

Fabulous Eight | (Happy Valley Race 3 No.4)

This bloke just hasn’t fired a shot over his last couple despite being well in the market. Last start was disappointing and the start prior you could forgive as he lost a little momentum at the top of the straight in harder class. The key to this start is the blinkers coming off and he did trial without them since last start, and I thought he trialed well despite slightly missing the start, nothing bad as he mustered well into position quickly. He has drawn perfectly to sit just behind a hot speed, and I am expecting a better performance, and if he doesn’t perform here, I’m not sure what they can do to help him.

Suggested bet:  No Bet @ $4.60

Seizing The Moment | (Happy Valley Race 4 No.10) & Flaming Passion | (Happy Valley Race 4 No.9)

This could be dangerous going against Purton on what is likely going to be the short-priced favourite but, here we go. Seizing The Moment hasn’t had a lot of luck but when he has been getting clear, he has lacked the killer punch. He placed third behind Armour Eagle and Rewarding Together at the Valley a fortnight ago and managed to run the quickest last 200m of the meeting and second quickest last 400m of the meeting. Moreira is back on which is solid, and the blinkers go on for the first time. John Size doesn’t add blinkers a lot and in the past year, he has added them for the first time to 21 runners with 4 of them winning at a strike rate of 19%. I am expecting a solid run. Flaming Passion is the other who just couldn’t match it with rival Party Warrior last start. He ended up going down a length and that was with Teetan not riding the final stage. He meets Party Warrior 3kg better off for that run, but the draw/map might be a task. Let’s hope this risk equals reward.

Suggested bet:  1.5 units @ $2.70 /  0.4 unit @ $10.00

Joyful Mood | (Happy Valley Race 5 No.6)

The son of Headwater was terrific on debut and Zac Purton has decided to stick with him. He ran a solid third behind Regency Star and Perfect Peach finishing under 1.5 lengths back. He will be much better for the run, and he has drawn perfectly to get another good run-in transit. A slight adjustment with the gear with the addition of the tongue-tie should just give him the edge in what is a weak Class 4.

Suggested bet:  1.4 units @ $3.00

Nimble Nimbus | (Happy Valley Race 7 No.1) / HK Dragon | (Happy Valley Race 7 No.6)

Gone with two horses here to cover my bases. Nimble Nimbus is back off a little freshen up and gets to look at Happy Valley for the first time. His form has been pretty good and since last start, he has had a nice trial to get him ready. He is drawn ideally in a race with next to no pace, so he is going to get luxury in front if he wants it. He may prove hard to run down in a slowly run affair. HK Dragon is yet to win this preparation but judging by his last run, a win isn’t far away. He came home nicely last start behind Villa Fionn and with the positive jockey change of Purton going aboard, I am expecting a better performance. It’s just a matter of keeping tabs on the leader, who could get away with murder.

Suggested bet:  0.8 unit @ $5.50 / 1.6 units @ $2.60

Darci Joy | (Happy Valley Race 9 No.10)

This is a tough race to finish the night on, most of these 1800m+ races are, but I settled with Darci Joy who is stepping up in grade. They say winning form is good form, and this bloke has won three of his past five whilst running second in the other two. Last time out at Sha Tin over the 1800m, he managed to walk away with a half a length win despite doing a lot wrong in the run and running into trouble. The draw isn’t too bad if Chadwick takes initiative early and of course, the distance isn’t a query. This is his first time at Happy Valley which is always a toss of the coin, and he is up to Class 3 for the first time. He is better than most of this field, but he will have to prove a few things tonight.

Suggested bet:  No Bet @ $7.00

Total : 9.5 Units