Best Bets | Happy Valley, 02 March 2022

Presence (Happy Valley Race 1 No.4) & Villa Fionn (Happy Valley Race 1 No.8)

These two are clearly the best horses in this race and I am happy to play them both at nice prices.

Presence is coming out of a pretty tough Class 3 where he came with a nice run up the outside with eventual winner Zone D but just couldn’t match it with him, finishing 1.8 lengths back in fourth. 0.7 of a length separated second through to fifth which features Soulmate who won well next start and Surrealism who ran well in third on the weekend. Before this race, our boy ran into Cheerful Days who has since won a Class 1 and Class 2 and we got within 2.3 lengths of him. Purton takes the ride which itself adds a boost, he is drawn perfectly and should sit a touch closer in the run.

Villa Fionn has won two of his last three in Class 4 and is looking to make that jump into Class 3 successful. He loves this track and distance and is drawn tonight to be given every chance in the world. He is in tremendous form and can run a cheeky race when the conditions suit.

Suggested bet: 1 unit @ $4.40 & 0.7 unit @ $6.00

Zone D (Happy Valley Race 3 No.6)

This bloke will be beaming with confidence after breaking through for that first win for the preparation after four near misses. He ran some tremendous sectionals home off a below-average pace, recording the quickest final 800m and 600m of the entire meeting, second quickest final 400m, and fifth quickest 200m split. Teetan retains the ride and in this small field, if he can time his run to perfection again, he is going to be hard to beat.

Suggested bet:  1.3 units @ $3.30

Lucky Diamond (Happy Valley Race 4 No.5) & Super Hong Kong (Happy Valley Race 4 No.6)

Two horse race in my opinion between two who are in form. Lucky Diamond has run into some nice horses over his last three and just had to do too much work from a wide gate last time out before being over-run by Off The Reel late in the race. It wasn’t a bad run by any stretch of the imagination and still managed to beat the rest of the field by over a length. He is drawn much better here, Teetan sticks and there isn’t much pace, so expect them to sit handy with ease. Super Hong Kong is the clear second pick and he has been a winner of two of his past three. He did clash with Lucky Diamond two starts ago, and meets him 3kg worse off which isn’t ideal but his 2 length win last start is a big reason for that. I expect him to be right there in the finish.

Suggested bet:  1 unit @ $4.00 & 0.8 unit @ $5.00

Blissful Star (Happy Valley Race 5 No.7)

This is quite an open race with it opening $5.00 the field, but our bloke has had no luck over all three of his starts. He made some critical errors last start which cause the rider to stop riding briefly in the straight and in the end, finished 1.3 lengths back in fourth. The key for him is he gets Zac Purton back aboard, who knows him really well and can provide him with a strong ride from a favourable barrier. His rating last start was the best of his three starts to date and with natural improvement, he can be a big thorn here tonight.

Suggested bet:  0.8 units @ $5.00

A Smile Like Yours (Happy Valley Race 8 No.7) & Forte (Happy Valley Race 8 No.11)

Another wide-open race tonight, this has opened $5.50 the field. A Smile Like Yours ran a tremendous 2.6 length fourth last start, and yes there is such a thing. He was caught wide around the 900m mark and drifted right back to last before making a nice run up the outside. This horse generally likes to sit closer in the run so his run last start was full of merit. He has had no luck over his last couple and although he hasn’t drawn ideally here, he gets Joao back on who knows him quite well. He is a chance to run another massive race. Forte is one I tip quite a bit because I am convinced he is going to win one this preparation. So far he has placed three times behind nice horses. Last start he came with a nice run to finish 1.3 lengths back in third to Meridian Genius and Eason, and had he drawn a gate, he goes close to winning. He has drawn much better here and I love the addition of Daniel Moor to ride. He should be at peak fitness now and this is a very winnable Class 3.

Suggested bet:  0.7 unit @ $6.00 & 0.8 unit @ $5.50